Which Sector Holds The Most Potential?

We've been in a period of strong seasonal patterns, meaning the track records for this time of year, in the overall indexes, many sectors, and many individual stocks. But the number of market indexes and sectors that have strong seasonal patterns are starting to fall off now. Institutions have probably positioned their portfolios by now to achieve the best year-end results they can expect. Shortly after the end of the year quarterly earnings reports will start that in most cases will also cover fiscal year-end results.

There are 4 weeks until the end of the year, and about 7 weeks until the earnings reports start coming out. On average, the S&P 500 has gained only 2.3%, and logged gains in 3 out of 4 years. The seasonal pattern of the S&P 500, for the next 7 weeks, shows significant gains and losses in some individual years, but also a lot of years with very small gains and losses.

It is difficult to directionally trade on a seasonal pattern like this.

Of course there are many quality stocks with good track records over the next several weeks. I'll have plenty to talk about the Seasonal Forecaster newsletter. But as far as the overall indexes and most sectors, the seasonal patterns suggest activity may be restrained – with one notable exception.

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) shows a strong seasonal tendency for healthcare-related stocks to rise into the first month or two of the new year. XLV has risen an average 4.2% over the next 7 weeks, with gains in all but 2 of its 15 years of history:

No sub-1% moves here. Perhaps there are short-term trading possibilities in this sector.

Yahoo Finance provides the top-10 holdings of the XLV ETF (XLV Top 10 Holdings). Looking over the price charts of each stock in the list, several of the stocks have had strong rallies already. There are a few that show setups holding potential for further gains.

Today's Seasonal Forecaster focuses on the top-10 stock with both a good price chart setup and a good seasonal track record, as well as a strong earnings and revenue track record. Two ways to trade this stock are presented, as well as a way to make it a higher probability trade.

Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day.  To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal

By Gregg Harris, MarketTamer Chief Technical Strategist

Copyright (C) 2014 Stock & Options Training LLC

Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.

Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com with extensive experience in the financial sector.

Gregg started out as an Engineer and brings a rigorous thinking to his financial research. Gregg's passion for finance resulted in the creation of a real-time quote system and his work has been featured nationally in publications, such as the Investment Guide magazine.

As an avid researcher, Gregg concentrates on leveraging what institutional and big money players are doing to move the market and create seasonal trend patterns. Using custom research tools, Gregg identifies stocks that are optimal for stock and options traders to exploit these trends and find the tailwinds that can propel stocks to levels that are hidden to the average trader.

The content on any of Market Tamer websites, products, or communication is for educational purposes only. Nothing in its products, services, or communications shall be construed as a solicitation and/or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading stocks, options, and other securities involve risk. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial. The risk involved with trading stocks, options and other securities are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must evaluate his/her own personal financial situation and consider all relevant risk factors. See: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf). The www.MarketTamer.com educational training program and software services are provided to improve financial understanding.

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