Roulette Black/Red Odds in the DJIA

Roulette Black/Red Odds in the DJIA

Major indexes and sector ETFs seem to be stuck, unable to break to new highs. We’ll just have to be patient and wait for a move out of the recent trading ranges. There is an interesting seasonal pattern in IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF. That index represents smaller cap stocks. It has → Read More

Time to Add a Gold Stock – Part II

Time to Add a Gold Stock – Part II

In Time to Add a Gold Stock – But Which One? I said: It’s getting time to add a gold stock to the Seasonal Forecaster portfolio. But which one? I used Seasonal Analysis to pick the best gold stock candidate, since most gold mining and royalty stocks had similar fundamentals (poor) and technical setups (improving → Read More

What DID Go Up on Friday?

What DID Go Up on Friday?

So what did go up on Friday? Of the eleven major sectors, it is not a surprise which one dropped the least. It was Utilities. Money flowed out of nearly everything else and into the defensive stocks – the utilities. 47 of 134 stocks in that sector closed on the upside, The second major index → Read More

A 4-week, 4.3% Trade

A 4-week, 4.3% Trade

In this morning’s newsletter I cover a trade setup on a stock with an exceptionally strong seasonal pattern. Over the next 4 weeks, this stock has gained an average 4.3%, with gains in 21 out of 24 years (88%). That’s a pretty good track record. An average 4.3% gain doesn’t sound like much, but the → Read More

Time to Add a Gold Stock – But Which One?

Time to Add a Gold Stock – But Which One?

It’s getting time to add a gold stock to the Seasonal Forecaster portfolio. But which one? With gold having been in a 3-year bear market, I’m not likely to select a stock based on fundamentals. No, this is going to be based primarily on charts.  It’s the strength in the gold sector, relative to the → Read More

A Quick 2% This Time?

A Quick 2% This Time?

I covered this potential trade last year in Is A Healthy Dividend Coming Up In EFA? and updated it in Did You Make A Quick 1.7%? EFA, the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF), typically pays two dividends a year, but they are not equal. The June dividend is usually two to three times the → Read More

What Are Bond Traders Thinking?

What Are Bond Traders Thinking?

TLT is the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund ETF. It reflects the prices of longer-term bonds. A bond ETF doesn’t usually capture my attention. But this one did. On the daily chart TLT is just breaking above resistance formed by the February 2016 high. Looking at the weekly chart, over a longer time period, → Read More

Another Seasonal Pattern Being Confirmed?

Another Seasonal Pattern Being Confirmed?

In the May 11th, 2016 issue of Seasonal Forecaster, I detailed a trade setup on Omnicell Inc. (OMCL). From the company’s website: Omnicell is recognized as a leading provider of comprehensive, technologically advanced automation that enables health care facilities to acquire, manage, dispense, and deliver medications and supplies more effectively. Omnicell automation is used from → Read More

Take An Early Vacation This Year?

Take An Early Vacation This Year?

In recent postings I’ve covered the weakness in the seasonal patterns of some sectors. For example, in Missed the Train in the Semi Sector? I detailed how the semiconductor sector, particularly the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has a track record of losses until we get into the mid-October timeframe. Earlier this week, in Consumer → Read More

Consumer Staples a Defensive Move?

Consumer Staples a Defensive Move?

In Friday’s posting (Missed the Train in the Semi Sector?) I covered the negative seasonal pattern in the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH). While the index looks ready to break above the December 2015 highs, I pointed out that the ETF does not have a good seasonal track record over the next several months. Institutional → Read More

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