Roulette Black/Red Odds in the DJIA

Roulette Black/Red Odds in the DJIA

Major indexes and sector ETFs seem to be stuck, unable to break to new highs. We’ll just have to be patient and wait for a move out of the recent trading ranges. There is an interesting seasonal pattern in IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF. That index represents smaller cap stocks. It has → Read More

What Would You Do?

What Would You Do?

A part of market analysis often overlooked is psychological analysis. We all too often fail to consider the motivations of both ourselves and the rest of the market. In the 1970’s and 80’s, some of the most successful traders came from other professions. You might expect professional gamblers to do well, and some did. But → Read More

Do You Believe?

Do You Believe?

I do not believe the markets are on stable ground. Yes, we’ve seen a good rebound off the August correction. The S&P 500 fell 12.5% during the summer, and has since rebounded by 11.4% (Note: that doesn’t mean the S&P 500 is back near its previous high). Volume has been decent during the rebound, but → Read More

Sell In May and Go Away? And Then?

Sell In May and Go Away? And Then?

Sell in May and Go Away! And when do you come back? It turns out the best time to bet on a rise in the major stock averages is to enter positions this week. Right now. Today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 9.1% gain over the next six months. Out of the → Read More

Still Licking Its Wounds

Still Licking Its Wounds

I periodically calculate the Up/Down Volume Ratios on all the stocks in the S&P 500. This gives me a feel for the amount of institutional participation in the markets. My most recent updates were in the August 10th How Long Can This Continue? and the August 21st When Will The Selling Stop? articles. Both of → Read More

Canned Up Gains

Canned Up Gains

In my September 9th, 2015 Seasonal Forecaster newsletter I covered a trade setup that stood out to me. Only two weeks before, the S&P 500 had quickly plunged 10%. It wasn’t clear whether more selling would come in, or a rebound of any sort would form. But in the newsletter I stated “There will always → Read More

What Is The Likely Direction?

What Is The Likely Direction?

Many times in the past I’ve pointed out the cyclical nature of the markets. The S&P 500 has a cycle of about 6 weeks in length. Pick any period over the past two or three decades and you’ll see this cycle (it may help to display the chart on the screen, and then stand up → Read More

Decaying Markets Update

Decaying Markets Update

On May 8th, I looked at the Decaying Markets using Investor’s Business Daily’s Accumulation/Distribution Rating on two major indexes. I’ve updated that table here: The fact that the rating on the S&P 500 has gone from B down to E (see the previous article for a description of these ratings), while the index has traded → Read More

What Might September Bring?

What Might September Bring?

This weekend I was reading William J. O’Neil’s How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short. I’ve owned his How to Make Money in Stocks for years and still find new gems every time I open it. His company, William O’Neil & Co., has produced some of the most extensive and useful research ever for institutional → Read More

Are Diamonds Your Best Friend?

Are Diamonds Your Best Friend?

The major indexes have staged breakouts that are hard to miss. Focusing on the ETFs that are easy to trade, the NASDAQ Composite, represented by QQQ, has marched upwards for 8 straight sessions, nearing the all-time highs set back in 2000: The S&P 500, represented by SPY, set a new high: The smaller cap Russell → Read More

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