You have probably read that one of the strongest groups right now is the homebuilding sector. And compared to the S&P 500's chart, which is in correction and bordering on a bear market, some of the homebuilder stock charts look like textbook examples of bull markets.
Lennar Corporation (LEN) announced earnings a week ago. Earnings were 21% higher than expectations and revenue was up 24% year-over-year. Lennar added to its already strong track record of growth in recent quarters:
Chartwise, LEN has been cycling within an up-trending trading range. I didn't need to draw the bottom trendline in this snapshot – the 50-day moving average has been functioning as the bottom of the trend:
While the current market environment appears weak, and weak markets are no strangers to September and October, the end of October tends to be the start of strong rebounds through the end of the year. The last two months of the year are when institutional traders fine tune their portfolios for final gains (after all, their bonuses and client retention will depend on how their track record for the year, and the potential gains for next year look).
Lennar's stock is a good example of how the picture improves as we go into October. Looking at the above chart, you might be thinking this may be a good time to buy Lennar stock, as it is sitting near the bottom of that trend. And you may be right. Value-seeking investors with patience and willingness to ride through a bit more weakness may be rewarded nicely as soon as the overall market sentiment improves. After all, if LEN merely rebounds to the top of the channel, gains will be in the 20% to 30% range.
But how can we improve the chances of success of buying the stock? By also taking into consideration the seasonal track record of LEN.
Looking at the track record of buying LEN stock this week, we see that it has a mixed track record for the next several weeks:
The success rate of buying this stock in previous years has only been about 50-50 when held for the next several weeks.
Held for a longer time period, the statistics improve. If LEN was bought this week and held for 17 weeks, over the past 31 years LEN produced a gain in a high 87% of the years:
But notice that there were a few large losses, with 2008 and 2009 producing 27% and 55% losses respectively.
However, what if we wait until the end of October? The track record improves:
If we bought LEN at the start of the 4th week of October, and held it for at least 15 weeks every year, we would have averaged a 23.4% gain, with only 2 losses in 31 years!
And notice that those two losses were only -12.6% and -5.5%. Those 2 large losses in 2008/9 instead produced gains:
A prudent trader or investor may want to hold off on value-hunting Lennar stock right now, and instead keep an eye on it, looking for a good chart setup around the end of October.
Seasonal analysis, like all other analysis, will not offer any guarantees of success. But it can be used to increase the likelihood of success of trades, and as the above example shows, may lower the likelihood of large draw-downs.
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal
Copyright (C) 2015 Stock & Options Training LLC
Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.
Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com.
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