Time To Consider Gold Trades?

The major U.S. stock indexes are ripe for a pullback. With the evidence of institutional accumulation in many stocks, it is likely to be of minor extent. If that indeed happens, contrarian strategies, such as buying protective puts or inverse ETFs as insurance, may not work out well.

How about diversifying in the longer term against this steadily rising stock market? The dollar has been on a tear since mid-2014. Sooner or later that will affect corporate earnings. It's not evident yet the causes for it are changing, so it is dangerous to bet against the dollar, for now.

Bond prices have pulled back a bit on expectations of rising U.S. interest rates. But TLT, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF looks like it is coming off a short-term cycle low and may work back upwards again. The basic materials sector has gained a little, but not enough to offer a good contrarian play. ‘Dr. Copper', a predictor of improving housing, is starting to rebound slightly, but that's it.

So that leaves the previous metals. Gold, the previous playground for active traders now turned anathema, has been crossed off the radar for a couple of years. Until now.

If you are itching to take a chance on gold, I see two interesting setups. Sorry, none of the dozens of gold stocks I researched had anything approaching decent fundamentals. But for a purely technical trade, either of these candidates are interesting.

GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, is coming off the bottom of an uptrend. Stochastics show a clear cycling pattern.

Since another up-cycle would probably take GLD up 5 to 15 points more, and a tight stop-loss could be set just below the uptrend line (maybe at 113), a good reward-to-risk trade could be implemented. I would consider only with a small position, and would exit as soon as upward momentum trails off.

As for an individual stock, Barrick Gold (ABX)'s volume on up-close days has been overwhelming volume on down-close days. Testing the 13 level for the third time in the past 4 months, any breakout on increasing volume could offer a higher probability trade.

A stop-loss below the current 50-day MA, maybe around 11.5, and a target of maybe mid-2014 lows around 15.5, could make a good reward-to-risk trade.

Again, only a small position. Fundamentals and seasonal patterns do not back up either of these trades. They are technical plays only.

Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day.  To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal

By Gregg Harris, MarketTamer Chief Technical Strategist

Copyright (C) 2015 Stock & Options Training LLC

Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.

Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com with extensive experience in the financial sector.

Gregg started out as an Engineer and brings a rigorous thinking to his financial research. Gregg's passion for finance resulted in the creation of a real-time quote system and his work has been featured nationally in publications, such as the Investment Guide magazine.

As an avid researcher, Gregg concentrates on leveraging what institutional and big money players are doing to move the market and create seasonal trend patterns. Using custom research tools, Gregg identifies stocks that are optimal for stock and options traders to exploit these trends and find the tailwinds that can propel stocks to levels that are hidden to the average trader.

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