I've pointed out numerous times over the years the regular 1.5 month cycle pattern evident in the S&P 500. Sometimes a cycle may be only a month wide, sometimes two months wide, and every now and then a cycle low or high will seem to be missing. But overall, it averages about 1.5 months in duration.
While the recent rebound is only one week old, volume quickly fell off in many stocks. That suggests we may have set a short-term cycle high, and over the next two to three weeks the overall market may drift down into another short-term cycle low. Traders, and longer-term investors looking to raise the odds of success as much as possible, may want to sit on the sidelines until the markets appear to be rebounding from another short-term cycle low.
The track record of the S&P 500 over the next few weeks shows a 0.3% average gain and a 49% ‘Win Rate' (17 years of gains over the past 35 years). So there is no strong seasonal pattern to take into consideration.
At this point, it may be prudent to take profits on positions intended to be short-term trades, pare back or add downside protection to longer term positions, and consider selling calls against quality stocks you want to keep in order to lower the cost basis.
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal
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