The Seasonal Forecaster newsletter sounds like it focuses on seasonal patterns. It does. However, it is really a newsletter on how to raise the probabilities of success, and returns of most trades. Analysis of seasonal patterns is a very good way to do that, and it is very effective. But I regularly cover numerous other techniques, from initial analysis and trade selection to trade strategies, on through trade management, that all work to increase the odds of success.
Not every trade setup I analyze becomes part of the newsletter model portfolio. But iIf I see a good opportunity to turn a trade setup into a teachable moment, I jump on it.
On December 6th, 2015, I posted comments on the Seasonal Forecaster website, saying:
Only true mining stock die-hards would have noticed, but the gold stocks have actually been building strength. I don't know if Friday's surge in the price of Gold is the start of a longer-term rally. And the fundamentals, on just about any gold stock you pick, are just plain lousy.
But if you have researched stocks and found that the best time to buy a sector is when everyone else hates it, or as the news goes from bad to less-bad, then you might be interested in this particular setup.
Barrick Gold Corp (ABX), like all the other gold stocks, has been hit hard by the falling price of gold. The dividend has decreased 90%, quarterly sales have dropped 21% in 2 years, and so forth. But one thing stands out – the volume pattern on the daily chart shows clear, steady accumulation going on in this stock. The Up/Down Volume Ratio, at 1.4, confirms this.
ABX appears ready to break above 4-month resistance around the 8.5 level. As the dust was settling in September 2008, I noticed the first stocks that rebounded were the gold stocks, and I did very well trading covered calls. So on a whim I checked out ABX covered calls, especially on the weeklies.
ABX closed at 8.09. But it seems very likely to hit at least 8.5, if not higher, within the next few weeks. The ABX December 26th expiration weekly 8.5 calls, which will last-trade on Dec 24th, are currently .19 Bid, .21 Ask. So let's say that on Monday morning you buy 1000 shares of ABX at 8.09, and sell 10 Dec-week4 8.5 calls at 0.20. The stock would cost $8,090, but you would get back $200 in income.
It certainly isn't guaranteed that ABX will close at or above 8.5 on December 24th, but it seems likely. Let's say it does. That means the 8.5 calls would be exercised, and your ABX stock would be called away at a price of 8.5.
You would have a cost basis of $7,890, and net proceeds of $8,500, for a gain of 7.7% over 18 days. That is an annualized rate of 155%.
If ABX closes below 8.5, you continue writing weekly or monthly calls against the stock, and managing the trades, to generate additional income. And if you do get your stock called away, just wait for a minor pullback and re-enter a covered call.
(This is a trade analysis for educational purposes- it will not be covered in the newsletter as it is not typical of a newsletter recommendation)
These comments were posted Sunday evening. At Monday's open, ABX traded at 7.96, and the ABX December 24th 8.5 call were priced around 0.16. Updating the analysis, a covered call trade could have been entered by buying shares of ABX at 7.96 and selling one ABX December 24 expiration 8.5 call for 0.16 for each 100 shares of stock. The cost basis would have been 7.8, and if ABX closed at or above 8.5 on December 24th, the trade would have returned 8.97%, or an annualized gain of 190%.
On Monday morning, December 28th, ABX was still in its 4 month trading range, opening at 7.69. But the volume pattern on the chart was still suggesting this stock was under accumulation. So we could have sold a January 8.0 call, trading around 0.19, to ‘stay in the game'. This would have lowered our cost basis to 7.61. So even though the stock was down 4.5 from our December 7th trade entry, the position was still showing a gain. If the stock got called away in mid-January, we'd come out with a 5.1% gain. Having been in the trade for 40 days, the annualized return would be 81%:
While ABX made an attempt at breaking out in early January, on the 15th, expiration day for the January options, ABX closed at 7.9 – the stock would not have been called away. So Monday morning, we could have sold a February 8.5 call for 0.32.
At this point, if ABX closed above 8.5 at expiration on February 19th, we'd stand to make an effective 16.6% on the trade. With the trade lasting 75 days, the effective annualized return would be almost 80%:
Finally, in late January, ABX broke upwards. The stock certainly would have been called away in mid-February, giving us a 16.6% return. We could also have managed the covered call trade, by ‘rolling-up-and-out', to avoid the stock being called away in February and capturing even more of the ABX's gain.
By applying probability-increasing trade strategy analysis, we ended up with a very good trade, even though we were early into the trade timing-wise. We were able to ‘stay in the game' by being patient and selling calls to lower our cost basis (which decreased our risk if the stock went through pullbacks before the eventual breakout).
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal
Copyright (C) 2016 Stock & Options Training LLC
Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com.
MarketTamer is not an investment advisor and is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Further, owners, employees, agents or representatives of MarketTamer are not acting as investment advisors and might not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory.
The sender of this email makes no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email, and makes no representations or warranties concerning said company or entity’s compliance with applicable laws and regulations, including, but not limited to, regulations promulgated by the SEC or the CFTC. The sender of this email may receive a portion of the proceeds from the sale of any products or services offered by a company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email. The recipient of this email assumes responsibility for conducting its own due diligence on the aforementioned company or entity and assumes full responsibility, and releases the sender from liability, for any purchase or order made from any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email.
The content on any of MarketTamer websites, products or communication is for educational purposes only. Nothing in its products, services, or communications shall be construed as a solicitation and/or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading stocks, options and other securities involves risk. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial. The risk involved with trading stocks, options and other securities is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must evaluate his/her own personal financial situation and consider all relevant risk factors. See: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp). The www.MarketTamer.com educational training program and software services are provided to improve financial understanding.
The information presented in this site is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Nothing in our research constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Our research is prepared for general circulation and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it. Our research is based on sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of our research, the completeness, or correctness or make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using our research. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on our research or the information contained therein. Some discussions contain forward looking statements which are based on current expectations and differences can be expected. All of our research, including the estimates, opinions and information contained therein, reflects our judgment as of the publication or other dissemination date of the research and is subject to change without notice. Further, we expressly disclaim any responsibility to update such research. Investing involves substantial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and a loss of original capital may occur. No one receiving or accessing our research should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or buy any particular security. As always, use your best judgment when investing.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This product is for educational purposes only. Practical application of the products herein are at your own risk and MarketTamer.com, its partners, representatives and employees assume no responsibility or liability for any use or mis-use of the product. Please contact your financial advisor for specific financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. Any trades shown are hypothetical example and do not represent actual trades. Actual results may differ. Nothing here in constitutes a recommendation respecting the particular security illustrated.
Also on Market Tamer…
Follow Us on Facebook