Will This Be Another Brief Spike in Volatility?

Will This Be Another Brief Spike in Volatility?

Recent spikes in volatility have been brief. Volatility usually jumps as the markets drop. The S&P 500’s November and December short-lived short-term lows caused two spikes in volatility that lasted no more than a week each. The current spike in VXX coincides with a much larger drop in the S&P 500. However, VXX’s high does → Read More

ETFs And The SEC Sledgehammer On “Black Monday”

ETFs And The SEC Sledgehammer On “Black Monday”

In August of 2014, we took an extended look at the “Smart Beta” ETF category [https://www.markettamer.com/blog/what-is-smart-beta ; https://www.markettamer.com/blog/getting-high-dividends-with-smart-beta ]. One of the most popular portfolio strategies within the wide range of all available “Smart Beta” choices is “Low Volatility”. The simplest way to understand how these “Low Volatility” ETFs are constructed is as follows:  The → Read More

Sellers Are Still In Control in This Stock

Sellers Are Still In Control in This Stock

We’re past the Fed meeting, and the news wasn’t bad. We can cruise now, right? No. It’s only starting. First, today is a ‘quadruple witching day’, the expiration of September stock index futures, index options, stock options, and single stock futures. Expect just a wee bit of volatility today. And in less than three weeks, → Read More

Key Information (Ratio) For Deciding Between FCNTX and RGAAX

Key Information (Ratio) For Deciding Between FCNTX and RGAAX

In our previous article (see: https://www.markettamer.com/blog/sharpen-your-analysis-of-ibb-xbi-and-fbt) we took a look at the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance record of three unnamed ETFs and discussed which of those investment choices had been the “best” one for that period. It soon became apparent that performance data alone is totally inadequate as a comparative measure among ETFs, funds, or portfolios[1]with → Read More

Bend It Like Buffett

Bend It Like Buffett

Take a moment to examine this chart of investment performance closely[1].  Please ignore the precise X Axis titles and presume (for the moment) that my personal average investment performance between 1994 and 2013 is represented by the fourth column from the right (in red)… and is herein compared with the investment performance of a wide-range → Read More

A Lower Risk Way To Trade Emerging Markets

A Lower Risk Way To Trade Emerging Markets

We all know how volatile the markets have been during the past few months – including the Russian market and the Oil market (as described in detail here: https://www.markettamer.com/blog/ready-to-go-bottom-fishing-with-putin;  https://www.markettamer.com/blog/how-to-bottom-fish.) In that context, it is worthwhile to note that, throughout the past couple of decades, one of the most consistently volatile equity spaces has been → Read More

The Market’s Likely Direction This Week Is…

The Market’s Likely Direction This Week Is…

There is a Fed meeting this week, which means there may be lack of market conviction before the Wednesday 2pm (Eastern) statement and volatility following it. With concern about the Fed changing its low-interest-rate policy, and that technically the market is likely coming off a short-term cycle high, the more likely direction over the next → Read More

A Finance Lesson For My Daughter: How To Trade A Strong Trend (Part II)

A Finance Lesson For My Daughter: How To Trade A Strong Trend (Part II)

In Part I we placed a spotlight upon the NASDAQ Index, whose performance has been outstripping the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Indices for at least 3.5 months, and has been leaving the RUT Index (Russell 2000) far behind (and in its “dust”). We also provided (in narrative and graph format) a brief history → Read More

How do I Increase My Odds of Success?

How do I Increase My Odds of Success?

The focus of the Seasonal Forecaster newsletter is on high probability trading, which is more of a philosophy than a specific strategy. It involves trying to increase the odds of success, and the overall returns over time, on the whole process from trade selection through trade closure. Sometimes in the newsletter I go through the → Read More

The Story of How Horizon Pharma Creatively Scaled

The Story of How Horizon Pharma Creatively Scaled

In the world of finance and stocks, there are times when “the stars line up” to create an especially interesting story. Such was the case when the announcement was made in March that Chicago-area Horizon Pharma Inc. was joining forces with privately held Vidara Therapeutics (a company which is listed as being headquartered in Roswell, → Read More

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