A Quick 2% This Time?

A Quick 2% This Time?

I covered this potential trade last year in Is A Healthy Dividend Coming Up In EFA? and updated it in Did You Make A Quick 1.7%? EFA, the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF), typically pays two dividends a year, but they are not equal. The June dividend is usually two to three times the → Read More

Is Ethan Allen Bucking the Market?

Is Ethan Allen Bucking the Market?

Money has been rolling out of certain stocks and sectors and into others. But the major indexes are stuck in a downward-sloping tight trading range. The key is volume. As the chart below shows, volume is a bit higher on recent down-close days (red volume bars). If volume drops off, a breakout on the upside → Read More

Is Another Hangover Coming?

Is Another Hangover Coming?

The S&P 500 set an all-time high almost a year ago, on May 20th, 2015. Traders have backed off several times since then as the index has approached that high. The index is once again approaching that high, and the divergence between the price and the Stochastics indicator suggests it may again fail to retake → Read More

Am I missing the rally?

Am I missing the rally?

Be careful about a ‘am I missing the big rally?’ feeling. It’s a seductive feeling, but like having an affair with a co-worker (remember, you’re married), it can only lead to trouble. Be patient. Wait for pullbacks and search for higher-probability chart setups on quality stocks. If you are an ETF trader, the iShares ETF → Read More

Is a Breakout Coming in This Stock?

Is a Breakout Coming in This Stock?

I do not trust this market. Too many companies are seeing declining revenues and earnings, and many stocks are showing signs of distribution. However there are always companies that are growing, have good business models, and show evidence of faith by both insiders and institutions. In market environments like the current one I like to → Read More

A 10% Rise Could Be In Order

A 10% Rise Could Be In Order

The NASDAQ Composite has spent the first 6 trading days of August in a tight trading range. A breakout of this range will likely result in an extended move. Historically, the direction it is likely to pick is up. Over the next 5 weeks, the NASDAQ has averaged a 2.9% gain, with the only losses → Read More

How do I Increase My Odds of Success?

How do I Increase My Odds of Success?

The focus of the Seasonal Forecaster newsletter is on high probability trading, which is more of a philosophy than a specific strategy. It involves trying to increase the odds of success, and the overall returns over time, on the whole process from trade selection through trade closure. Sometimes in the newsletter I go through the → Read More

Will This Be 8 for 8?

Will This Be 8 for 8?

What does a trading range look like? Sometimes they just stand out on charts. For example, here is an 18-month chart of Home Depot stock. Even if you’re new to chart analysis, and don’t know an exhaustive gap from a harami, you would likely look at this chart and declare that HD is in a → Read More

Playing with DIAmonds

Playing with DIAmonds

In Friday’s newsletter I highlighted the cyclical nature of the S&P 500 and how it may be heading towards another short-term cycle low. The recent cycles are even more apparent in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Looking at the chart of DIA, the ETF based on the DJIA, and the Stochastics indicator, it seems another → Read More

Another Shutdown? Deal With It (this way…)

Another Shutdown? Deal With It (this way…)

Another government shutdown looms. Another chance for a negative market reaction. My advice? Get used to it. Contrary to the analysis provided by some of the mainstream media, the 2012 election was not about race, but was about economic, social, governmental, and foreign policy approaches for our country. 62.6 million voters went for one approach. → Read More

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