What Are Bond Traders Thinking?

What Are Bond Traders Thinking?

TLT is the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund ETF. It reflects the prices of longer-term bonds. A bond ETF doesn’t usually capture my attention. But this one did. On the daily chart TLT is just breaking above resistance formed by the February 2016 high. Looking at the weekly chart, over a longer time period, → Read More

An ETF Showing Accumulation?

An ETF Showing Accumulation?

There are 24 major index and sector ETFs I track. Many of them have good seasonal patterns, meaning track records over the next few months, but for the next few weeks there isn’t much to trade on. For example, XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, has the best seasonal pattern right now. Over the next → Read More

The Bond Illiquidity Paradox

The Bond Illiquidity Paradox

“Go through life parched and empty Standing knee deep in a river dying of thirst.”   —  Sung by Kathy Mattea  Paradox is always a challenge to understand… and even more of a challenge to explain!  The title lyrics (above) from the 1993 hit song sung by Kathy Mattea is a great example. In fact, it → Read More

Time To Consider Gold Trades?

Time To Consider Gold Trades?

The major U.S. stock indexes are ripe for a pullback. With the evidence of institutional accumulation in many stocks, it is likely to be of minor extent. If that indeed happens, contrarian strategies, such as buying protective puts or inverse ETFs as insurance, may not work out well. How about diversifying in the longer term → Read More

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?

Those of you who regularly consume financial media reports (print, TV/Radio, and/or Internet) have become extremely familiar with a basic axiom inherent within the fixed income market, namely: Bond prices (the market value of any given bond) move inversely to bond interest rates. During the most recent couple of years, financial experts have regularly forecasted → Read More

Volcker: The Central Problem Is….

Volcker: The Central Problem Is….

Those of you who never experienced 18% money market rates most likely don’t have a first-hand sense of the vaunted stature Paul Volcker achieved during his service as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board between 1979 and 1987. During his term, he managed to reverse a very scary period of exorbitant inflation (which reached → Read More

I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning

A few days ago I showed a chart of TLT. It looked like it regularly cycles up and down and spends little time dawdling at short-term highs. I suggested a way to trade the current setup, which looked like another possible short-term high. Instead of shorting this $120 ETF, I mentioned the March 124 in-the-money → Read More

Welcome to Sequester Friday

The S&P 500 is right back to where it started on Monday morning. It bounced nicely off its 50-day moving average. This could be a cyclical bottom, a classic reversal that makes a good entry point for bullish bets. Not so fast. The two rebound days, Tuesday and Wednesday, were on below-average volume. Yesterday’s candlestick → Read More

Are The Widows And Orphans In Yet?

As much as I’d like to see a sell off in the market – just to get some volatility back; and as much as I think the $SPX is ready for at least a slight pullback just based on the chart…. …and with the SPX reaching both the high-end of this uptrend channel and overhead → Read More

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