A 35,000 Feet View Of The Markets

A 35,000 Feet View Of The Markets

Now that we are nearly halfway through the 2016 investment year, let’s assess “where we are”. The simple fact is that most traders operate on a day-by-day or week-by-week basis[1], while investors generally think in terms of months or quarters. However, we run the risk of not seeing “the forest for the trees” when we → Read More

From War Bonds To Dots: The Evolving Federal Reserve

From War Bonds To Dots: The Evolving Federal Reserve

In our previous article, we offered an historical summary of how central banking – sometimes reviled and almost always under suspicion – emerged at the birth of the United States (through the leadership of Alexander Hamilton) and then experienced notable ebbs and flows through the following 235 years of U.S. history. Within that long history, → Read More

Putting Fed “Liftoff” In Context

Putting Fed “Liftoff” In Context

Ever since we entered the era of “24/7” coverage of financial and investment news on television and the Internet, there has been a discernible pattern: news channels and media commentators tend to focus upon certain “hot button” topics ad infinitum.  In my opinion, the result has been the dilution and diminishment of the quality and → Read More

At This Rate…. (Analysis of the Impact of Interest Rates on Stock Prices)

At This Rate…. (Analysis of the Impact of Interest Rates on Stock Prices)

Imagine that you are a modern-day Rip Van Winkle who mysteriously fell asleep back in early 2011, when Bill Gross and various other pundits appearing on business television were forecasting an increase in the U.S. Federal Funds Rate – which had been holding steady at a record-low of 0.25% since December of 2008. (You would → Read More

MOMO (A Momentum ETF) Can Help Your Mojo

MOMO (A Momentum ETF) Can Help Your Mojo

Our previous article about the performance of “Momentum ETFs” during the second half of August has increased awareness of (and interest in) these instruments. So let’s take a more detailed look at how “Momentum ETFs” came to be. In days long gone by, the U.S. “stock market” was much less complex:  1) In the pre-Personal → Read More

Could Goethe And Schiller Have Imagined Black Monday? (Part II)

Could Goethe And Schiller Have Imagined Black Monday? (Part II)

In our previous article [“COULD GOETHE AND SCHILLER HAVE IMAGINED BLACK MONDAY?”] we characterized the August financial markets as having been dominated by “Sturm und Drang” – a German expression that comes from a literary movement that included two giant historical figures from that nation — Johann Wolfgang (von) Goethe and Johann Christoph Friedrich von → Read More

How To Cope With Cape Fear (A Look at Valuation and Volatility)

How To Cope With Cape Fear (A Look at Valuation and Volatility)

As we all know, March 2nd witnessed a new recent high in U.S. equity markets … but then prices started tailing off, climaxing on March 6th with an over 1.5% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials Index, a decline of over 1.4% in the S&P 500 Index, and a tumble of over 1.1% in the → Read More

Helping You Cope With Rate Uncertainty

Helping You Cope With Rate Uncertainty

As one reviews the current stock and bond markets, it would be natural to think about the concept of “Inflection Point”[1]. I don’t think that many readers would quibble with me if I observed that markets have been a bit peculiar lately.  For example: 1) Last week, the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all → Read More

How To Use Econ 101 To Invest In The Stock Market

How To Use Econ 101 To Invest In The Stock Market

Books and articles that claim to identify the true “key” to investment success have been an industry unto itself for many decades. Within these published works, countless insights, theories, principles, and models have been introduced as a “key” (if not the key) to profitable investing. In more recent decades, two of the most popular (and → Read More

Nobel Prize Winner + Federal Reserve Chair = ??

Nobel Prize Winner + Federal Reserve Chair = ??

I am writing this on February 1st, the “official” start of the “Yellen Fed”.[1]  A couple of random thoughts came to mind: 1)    Will the performance of U.S. equities in January [S&P 500 down about 2.5%, Dow Jones Industrials down about 4.5%, and the NASDAQ down (just) 1%] be attributed to Yellen or Bernanke?[2] 2)    → Read More

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