What a Difference a Day Makes! – Updated

What a Difference a Day Makes! – Updated

Back on March 7th, I posted an article called What a Difference a Day Makes! In the article I pointed out that some stocks have not only strong seasonal track records, based on weeks, but the day of the week you buy the stock can also make a difference in your results. The example I → Read More

Not Yet a Correction

Not Yet a Correction

The S&P 500 bought a one-way ticket south. After setting a new all-time high, it quickly reversed, plunging through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A quick 9.8% loss over 18 trading sessions: But wait. That was not last week. That was less than a year ago, in October 2014. The index of large-cap U.S. → Read More

Turbo Profits?

Turbo Profits?

Intuit (INTU), the Turbo-Tax® company, has a strong track record for gains over the next 21 weeks. It has racked up an average 23.3% gain, only 2 losses in 22 years, and produced many double-digit gains: INTU’s weekly chart shows a steady rise with occasional drops back to the 200-week moving average: Today’s Seasonal Forecaster → Read More

An Overstretched Rubber Band?

An Overstretched Rubber Band?

Ah, the rubber band. Simple in concept, simple in operation. The power that it absorbs as it expands can be put to beneficial uses: (iStock photo) But it doesn’t like to remain stretched. It can suddenly snap back and quickly reclaim its ‘relaxed’ state, possibly causing significant injury in a short amount of time to → Read More

Is A Recession Brewing?

Is A Recession Brewing?

As the 1980 recession progressed, I started to take note of the visible indications in the local economy. In 1990 I was running my own business. Early in the year my local printer mentioned his business was falling off, and he said the owner of the sandwich shop across the street told him the same → Read More

Locking In a 20% Profit

Locking In a 20% Profit

Yum! Brands will announce earnings after the close on Tuesday (7/14/2015). We entered a long stock position in YUM back on February 11th. My justification was: Yum! Brands (YUM), parent of Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut restaurants, has an incredible seasonal track record. Over the next 15 weeks, YUM has risen an average 12.5%, → Read More

Decaying Markets Update

Decaying Markets Update

On May 8th, I looked at the Decaying Markets using Investor’s Business Daily’s Accumulation/Distribution Rating on two major indexes. I’ve updated that table here: The fact that the rating on the S&P 500 has gone from B down to E (see the previous article for a description of these ratings), while the index has traded → Read More

How Do I Judge a Market Pullback?

How Do I Judge a Market Pullback?

How do you judge a market pullback? Is it going to be relatively shallow followed by a quick rebound, or is it likely to widen into something bigger? No one has a crystal ball with 100% prediction reliability. The best any of us can do is to apply rational judgment and make educated guesses based → Read More

A Short Term Cycle Low Beckons

A Short Term Cycle Low Beckons

It’s been a while since I posted an update to this chart. The major stock indexes, especially the S&P 500, quite clearly show a regular cycle. In uptrends the cycle lows are the easiest to identify (the Stochastics indicator, not shown below, can help to identify cycle bottoms). The general stock market has a cycle → Read More

Time To Take Profits on AAP?

Time To Take Profits on AAP?

In the October 3rd, 2014 Seasonal Forecaster newsletter I focused on AAP’s excellent setup. It looked like it was forming a steep up-trending channel, the stochastics were coming off of ‘oversold’ territory and producing a buy signal, and the volume pattern strongly suggested institutions were accumulating this stock. I covered AAP’s improving earnings record. I → Read More

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