In recent newsletters I've cautioned about the lack of participation in the new highs being set by the indexes. While the S&P 500 was setting records, many quality stocks were struggling, or at least displaying complacency. But I'm noticing another interesting pattern. In the past month and a half, we've had 3 pullbacks in the → Read More
Breakouts are not working. They are not following through. Take Disney, a stock that usually posts strong gains this time of year. Over the next 12 weeks, a period that goes into the middle of January earnings reports, DIS has gained an average 9.1%, with gains in 24 out of the past 29 years. Disney → Read More
I want to talk about one of the most powerful forces on earth. Not military force, not some new energy source. These pale in comparison. I'm talking about the bonus and the renewing-client factor. A ‘crisis', whether real or manufactured by the media, in the first part of the year generally lasts longer. But there → Read More
The stock I use most often to demonstrate how seasonal patterns work is Disney (DIS). It has one of the best seasonal patterns you will come across in any quality, well-known stock. Certain stocks will make certain moves around the same time each year for a host of very solid reasons. Disney is a big-name → Read More
Patience can be one of the important factors in increasing your trading success. For example, Disney (DIS) is currently in a consolidation period. The horizontal 50-day moving average confirms its sideways movement. Drawing support and resistance lines produces a well-defined trading range. If DIS rebounds here, and the overall market shows some strength, a bullish → Read More
In Part I, we shared a series of graphs based upon key financial data from the quarterly statements of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A). The objective of the study was to discern what indicators (if any) could be reliably utilized as useful tools regarding Buffett’s asset allocation and evaluation of “relative value” within the markets. In this → Read More
In Part I, we travelled back in time to May 6, 2010 – the day of the much studied and debated “Flash Crash”. That is a day that investors and professional fund managers/traders will never forget. Around 2:42 PM that afternoon, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index already down over 300 points (due to concerns → Read More
In the January 11th issue of Seasonal Forecaster, I stated “…Taking positions in them before their earnings announcement will be higher risk, lower probability trades. Waiting after earnings and jumping in on positive reactions can be quite profitable with less risk.” Disney (DIS) is one stock I suggested watching. It hasn't reported earnings yet. They → Read More
When I first read a headline about a “platinum coin” being a “solution” to the ongoing U.S. Debt Ceiling struggle, I was absolutely certain it was a joke! Much to my surprise, I soon started reading commentary from respected experts who actually see some merit in the idea, among whom is the CEO of investment → Read More
In case you are wondering what that sound is, they are crickets. Since January 2nd‘s open, the NASDAQ Composite it up just 1.4%. The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are only slightly better, although like the NASDAQ, on yesterday's 84.79 point advance in the Dow, they too could not muster any above-average → Read More