A Quick 2% This Time?

A Quick 2% This Time?

I covered this potential trade last year in Is A Healthy Dividend Coming Up In EFA? and updated it in Did You Make A Quick 1.7%? EFA, the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (ETF), typically pays two dividends a year, but they are not equal. The June dividend is usually two to three times the → Read More

Enter a Trade This Week?

Enter a Trade This Week?

This week is the third week of this earnings cycle. The pace of announcements will pick up sharply. However, it's best to hold off on considering new positions for the next week or two. As the following seasonal chart shows, the NASDAQ Composite, over the next three weeks, has a track record of nearly no → Read More

A Good Time for Semi Stocks? Maybe Not.

A Good Time for Semi Stocks? Maybe Not.

SMH, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF, has been trading within a range since last summer. While the stock is near recent highs, the Stochastics indicator has been falling off. This is a result of SMH increasingly closing near the bottom of its recent trading range. SMH does not have a great track record over the → Read More

A Great Seasonal Pattern

A Great Seasonal Pattern

This is an impressive seasonal pattern. This stock has quite a record over the next 12 weeks. Not only a high ‘win rate' after 21 years, but also very low drawdowns. In today's Seasonal Forecaster issue, I cover this stock, recent news on it, and a higher probability trade setup is on the stock. If → Read More

Am I missing the rally?

Am I missing the rally?

Be careful about a ‘am I missing the big rally?' feeling. It's a seductive feeling, but like having an affair with a co-worker (remember, you're married), it can only lead to trouble. Be patient. Wait for pullbacks and search for higher-probability chart setups on quality stocks. If you are an ETF trader, the iShares ETF → Read More

Do You Believe?

Do You Believe?

I do not believe the markets are on stable ground. Yes, we've seen a good rebound off the August correction. The S&P 500 fell 12.5% during the summer, and has since rebounded by 11.4% (Note: that doesn't mean the S&P 500 is back near its previous high). Volume has been decent during the rebound, but → Read More

Is It Time To Buy Amazon.com?

Is It Time To Buy Amazon.com?

We are on the tail side of Christmas headed towards Q4 and full-year earnings reports in late January. Picking the stock of one of the top retailers and playing a possible rise from expectations of positive earnings may seem like a logical decision. And sure enough, there are recommendations from analysts and financial writers on → Read More

The Great Paradox

The Great Paradox

Several times, starting in late March, I covered how O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) was setting up for a possible breakout to the upside. In the April 23rd, 2014 newsletter, I pointed out the recent gentle downtrend was being tested and a breakout may be imminent. (chart from the 4/23/14 Seasonal Forecaster newsletter) I also showed the → Read More

What Is The Chinese Conundrum of China?

What Is The Chinese Conundrum of China?

For untold centuries, the annals of Western Civilization have repeatedly described the fascination that China and “the Orient”[1] have held for explorers, historians, poets, writers, and (to a lesser extent) the average person. It is true that contact and trade between Asia and Europe began (in small measure) in the 3rd century B.C.[2] However, significant → Read More

Playing with DIAmonds

Playing with DIAmonds

In Friday's newsletter I highlighted the cyclical nature of the S&P 500 and how it may be heading towards another short-term cycle low. The recent cycles are even more apparent in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Looking at the chart of DIA, the ETF based on the DJIA, and the Stochastics indicator, it seems another → Read More

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