Time to Add a Gold Stock – But Which One?

Time to Add a Gold Stock – But Which One?

It’s getting time to add a gold stock to the Seasonal Forecaster portfolio. But which one? With gold having been in a 3-year bear market, I’m not likely to select a stock based on fundamentals. No, this is going to be based primarily on charts.  It’s the strength in the gold sector, relative to the → Read More

Did You Jump Into POOL?

Did You Jump Into POOL?

On January 19th, 2016, my Tuesday morning posting was titled Time to Jump Into POOL? I pointed out that over the next 15 weeks, POOL had a 100% track record of gains – a strong average gain of 18.1% a year, with gains in 20 out of POOL’s 20 years of trading. And many of → Read More

Nobody At This Pep Rally

Nobody At This Pep Rally

A couple of weeks ago the number of NYSE stocks that were above their 200-day moving average hit the lowest number since March 30, 2009. Less than 10% of stocks were above their 200-day MA. In fact, the average has been slowly declining since at least the beginning of 2013. At first glance, you may → Read More

Will You Sleep Well Knowing This?

Will You Sleep Well Knowing This?

Back in my April 20th article, titled What Might September Bring?, I focused on the track record of gains and losses in the month of September. I stated “There is an approximately seven year cycle in Septembers with larger losses. “ This weekend I was looking at the seasonal patterns of the major indexes and ETFs, → Read More

Using Seasonal Analysis to Improve Trade Odds

Using Seasonal Analysis to Improve Trade Odds

You have probably read that one of the strongest groups right now is the homebuilding sector. And compared to the S&P 500’s chart, which is in correction and bordering on a bear market, some of the homebuilder stock charts look like textbook examples of bull markets. Lennar Corporation (LEN) announced earnings a week ago. Earnings → Read More

A Hammer Reversal?

A Hammer Reversal?

The S&P 500 was forming a triangle chart pattern, which more often than not is a continuation pattern, meaning further downside was the more likely result. We are in a market correction. Many analysts and traders are looking for evidence of a rebound (after all, corrections don’t last forever), and many are thinking a bear → Read More

A Troubling Pattern

A Troubling Pattern

The S&P 500 has been consolidating and trying to find a bottom since the low set two weeks ago. However, it has been coiling up, forming lower highs and higher lows, with volume decreasing. This action is meeting the classic definition of a symmetrical triangle, which is usually (but not always), a continuation pattern. Martin → Read More

Not Yet a Correction

Not Yet a Correction

The S&P 500 bought a one-way ticket south. After setting a new all-time high, it quickly reversed, plunging through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A quick 9.8% loss over 18 trading sessions: But wait. That was not last week. That was less than a year ago, in October 2014. The index of large-cap U.S. → Read More

When Will The Selling Stop?

When Will The Selling Stop?

The major indexes dropped between 2 and 3% yesterday. The S&P 500 is down 4.6% since its last high a month ago. Of course everyone is wondering how far this pullback will go. The bull market, since 2009, has been so strong that the first assumption I have to make, for now, is that this → Read More

Identifying a High Probability Trade

Identifying a High Probability Trade

In the June 20th, 2015 issue of Season Forecaster newsletter I covered a short trade analysis on Yahoo (YHOO). In December the stock failed to set a higher high, and Yahoo’s earnings report in late January was disappointing. The stock had been trading in a tight trading range of 42 to 46 since then and → Read More

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