Finding trade candidates from recent earnings announcements
From my January 16th, 2015 newsletter (the start of the Q1 2015 earnings season):
One simple way I judge how the earnings announcements are going, and to get a good feel for the economy as well, is to go to briefing.com. At the end of each week, I click on Calendars, then Earnings, then the This Week link. I simply look for ‘how much green' – how many ‘Actuals' are displayed in green, which means reported earnings were above consensus estimates. I also take a quick glance at the Yr/Yr Rev numbers. Are they mostly healthy increases or decreases?
For yesterday, briefing.com showed me quite a bit of green, meaning positive earnings surprises are vastly outnumbering negative surprises. By doing this regularly through each earnings season I get an idea of what to expect in the near future. If I see a lot of green during the reporting period, meaning most companies reported positive earnings surprises, I will expect any subsequent market pullback to be short-lived. It is hard for institutions to commit to selling when most companies are raking in sales and earnings. They are more likely to ramp up their buying. While it is still early in this reporting period, so far I like what I see.
Now, today, October 9th, 2015 (the start of the Q3 2015 earnings season):
Alcoa (AA) had promise. They are one of two suppliers of aluminum alloy to Ford's new aluminum-body F-150 truck. But China sales fell off, and the next result was a 50% miss on earnings, and a decline in revenue (Yr/Yr) of 10.7%.
The stock is down 10% in the aftermarket:
So just on the negative earnings numbers, I would not consider Alcoa, or several other stocks that have just reported.
Can this approach of briefing.com analysis provide good trade candidates as well as filter out bad candidates? Yes. Just look for stocks with green ‘Actuals' and good Yr/Yr gains. Do you spot the interesting candidate in the table above?
Helen of Troy, the company that ‘designs and develops hair care appliances', announced earnings last night and showed some good numbers for earnings and revenue gains.
This is the fifth good quarterly report. The company's numbers have been improving since mid-2014, along with a doubling of the stock price.
Last night's report is being well-received by traders, who have apparently noticed the improving picture. HELE is up almost 9% in aftermarket trading.
The stock appears to be under moderate accumulation, it commands a high Investor's Business Daily's Composite Rating of 96, and the number of funds holding the stock increased more than 20% over the past year.
But is the timing right to buy this stock? Does this stock have a track record of institutional buying or selling over the next several weeks? A track record of selling means today's gains could quickly evaporate. Today's Seasonal Forecaster newsletter has details, along with a short trade setup on a rapidly declining sector.
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal
Copyright (C) 2015 Stock & Options Training LLC
Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.
Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com.
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