What Are Seasonals And Why Should I Care?

Let’s go through a few scenarios to better understand what the intent is of seasonal analysis. Say you want to rob a bank. You learn that extra cash to cover payroll for the local ping pong ball manufacturing plant is usually delivered to the bank on Thursday mornings. Why would you rob the bank on → Read More

The Financial Party Beckons

There will be times the market will not give a clear indication of its intentions. This is one of those times. The S&P 500 has pulled back 3% from recent highs. But so far, it has been a relatively tame event. The SPY’s chart for example shows more of a consolidation, with above-average volume on → Read More

Will A ‘Hammer’ Fix Apple?

AAPL is perhaps the company receiving the most attention right now. Apple’s earnings are due on October 25th, after the market close. On Tuesday, Marketwatch.com and other sites had multiple articles on why you should get out of Apple now. They described a Head and Shoulder top, a recent price-undercutting pattern, MACD divergences, and a → Read More

Is AMZN A Worthy Earnings Trade?

  In the October 1st issue of MarketTamer’s Seasonal Forecaster, I focused on how to trade earnings announcements. A typically higher-risk, lower-probability trade, it can work well if you really know your stock(s) and trade only the ones that work well with straddles. Option straddle strategies are bi-directional trades – the trade will end up → Read More

The Sum Of The Parts?

The XLF is looking strong. The past month has a couple of sharp moves upwards on above-average volume. As you know by now, I look to identify ‘tailwinds’ for my trades. I want to ride the coattails of the real movers of a stock or index, the institutions. I look for seasonal patterns that indicate → Read More

EEM Has The Right Stuff

There is a pattern in a lot of the ETFs and individual stocks that strongly suggests institutional accumulation us going on. EEM, the ETF based on stocks in emerging markets, is one good example. Periodically spaced days on well-above-average volume, often on opening gap-ups, is most likely  coming not from individual investors and traders reacting → Read More

Strong Seasonal Patterns in the S&P and NASDAQ Provide Support

The markets have been pulling back, a process well overdue. So far there is no reason to be alarmed, at least from the price charts. The SPY chart looks similar to the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 charts. The SPY could fall a bit more. Halting in the area of the 50-day moving average and the → Read More

NASDAQ’s Picture Perfect Pattern Continues

One thing I’ve always been amazed at is ‘trending channels’. My favorite charting program is Worden’s Telechart. It allows me to draw a trendline, create a parallel line, and then drag it to create a channel. I’m frequently amazed to discover how a stock, ETF, or index, often stays within a channel defined with perfectly → Read More

Spotting Weakness Early

I gave three example stocks to watch, on the possibility their current patterns could turn into perfect examples of spotting a downturn at the beginning. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) was down today but hasn’t yet proved my point (I think it will). But Amazon’s (AMZN) low today was 2.5% down from Friday’s close, and the chart pattern suggests → Read More

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