Need to Know: Stocks are pricey, but could keep climbing on ‘the Trump story,’ says Robert Shiller

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The S&P 500 is cruising toward a weekly win, and it just needs a gain of 0.3% today to notch yet another record close.

So what’s the deal, given all those worries around trade, the Fed and Apple’s AAPL, +2.42%  iPhone prices?

“Investors should of course be mindful of the risk of further crises,” says The Economist, as it reflects on markets ahead of tomorrow’s big anniversary — 10 years since Lehman flopped.

“But they should also keep in mind the possibility that things might turn out just fine,” the British magazine adds. That’s even though “looking on the bright side does not have the same intellectual cachet as forecasting calamity.”

Nobel Prize-winning Yale economist Robert Shiller doesn’t need that cachet, apparently. He’s sounding rather cheery, as he serves up our call of the day.

The stock market is “highly priced,” but “it could get much more highly priced,” the Shillster said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

There is an emotional, irrational element to the S&P’s strength, according to the econ professor.

“It has something to do with our president, who is an exceptionally business-oriented president and who wants to deregulate and who favors lower taxes,” he said.

“That has an effect on the market, but I think it goes beyond the rational, logical effect, and it has something to do with our animal spirits. The U.S. is just doing great right now, in terms of the strength of the economy and the stock market.”

“That is kind of psychological, kind of built around the Trump story at this point in history,” Shiller added.

The market’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio — a metric that Shiller helped make famous — has climbed to a relatively lofty level, reaching the low 30s. But the CAPE crusader noted in the interview that it topped 45 in 2000, implying it still has room to run.

To be sure, the Nobel laureate offered warnings, as he did in March, when he cautioned President Trump could bring about an economic crisis.

“It’s kind of a risky market now, and I wouldn’t over-expose myself to it,” Shiller said.

Key market gauges

Futures for the Dow YMU8, +0.16%  , S&P 500 ESU8, +0.15% and Nasdaq-100 NQU8, +0.33% are stepping higher, after the Dow DJIA, +0.57%  , S&P SPX, +0.53%  and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.75% climbed yesterday, helped by reports that China could be open to new trade talks with the U.S.

The three gauges are all up by roughly 1% for the week, as of Thursday’s close.

Europe SXXP, +0.29% and Asia largely have been seas of green. Oil CLV8, +0.48% and gold GCZ8, +0.32% are gaining ground, as the dollar index DXY, -0.07% trades flat to lower. Bitcoin BTCUSD, +0.11%  is changing hands around $6,500.

The chart
BAML

Here’s what seems too loved and too hated by investors.

Which asset classes look like they’ve experienced too much selling lately?

Metals such silver, as well as emerging-markets equities and currencies. That’s the message from our chart of the day, which comes from a team of Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists led by Michael Hartnett.

On the flip side, investors appear to have showered too much love on U.S. stocks and oil.

The buzz

Marijuana stocks such as Tilray TLRY, +14.11%  and Canopy Growth CGC, -13.67%  seem on track for drops today following news that Canadian marijuana investors could be banned from ever entering the U.S.

A series of gas explosions killed one person and injured at least 10 others in three towns outside Boston. Customers of Columbia Gas, owned by NiSource NI, +0.68%  , were then asked to evacuate.

Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson have invented an alternative history of Lehman’s collapse, says this professor. MarketWatch has all sorts of stories looking back on the 2008 financial crisis here.

SpaceX says it has signed up the first private passenger seeking to fly around the moon, and Elon Musk’s company will reveal the traveler’s identity Monday.

AMD’s stock AMD, -5.37% took a breather yesterday, but it still has roughly tripled this year.

Are you ready for some data? Reports on retail sales, import prices and industrial production are on tap before the open. Once trading is underway, watch for releases on consumer sentiment and business inventories.

Check out: MarketWatch’s Economic Calendar

On the Federal Reserve front, the Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans is due to speak before the opening bell, then the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren is slated to talk shortly after the open.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo cruised past Cynthia Nixon, best known for her “Sex and the City” role, in the Democratic primary there.

The quote

“Surviving this storm will be a test of endurance, teamwork, common sense and patience.” — North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper talks about Hurricane Florence, which already has inundated coastal streets with ocean water and left tens of thousands without power.

Read: Hurricane Florence to bring “catastrophic” flooding

Also: Florence sparks some fuel shortages, but gas prices won’t see a big spike

Random reads

This bear with an expressive face photo-bombed a couple’s wedding pics.

Julie Chen supports for her husband, ousted CBS CBS, +1.94%  CEO Les Moonves.

Don’t fear AI? It may free you from tedious tasks, let you focus on creative stuff.

Here’s who should win at Monday’s Emmy Awards.

Nikki Haley spent $52.7K in State Department money on curtains.

The Church of England blasts Amazon AMZN, -0.01% , but owns the stock.

In college football’s top 25, there’s a breakout player for each team.

A top cancer doctor resigns after failing to disclose industry ties.

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