Admit it. You're jealous of that guy down the street who has the freedom to just hop on his ‘Hog' and take off anytime he feels like it.
You will be stuck, on a sunny Saturday, taking the kids to soccer or repairing your gutters and repainting your soffits. The Walter Mitty in you will come out and you'll daydream about just taking off on two wheels with a couple of friends.
Come the first warm day in Spring and you'll be pretending you have twist handles on your Aeron chair at work.
Not you? Come on now, there's a little bit of biker spirit in all of us. Some of us deny it, some of us flaunt it, but most of us have it.
And what company will you be thinking of? Vespa, who makes those little motor scooters? No, there's that one United States-based company that defines American attitude and freedom of movement – Harley Davidson (stock symbol HOG).
As active traders, we look at everything we come across and think about the company behind it, asking one simple question…”Can I trade that?”
The markets supposedly anticipate future performance, so with Harley Davidson, which has an obvious seasonally-based sales cycle, is now the time to get into the stock?
HOG sold off in early January, like the rest of the market, pulling back 13%. HOG has been rebounding, with volume on up-close days overwhelming volume on down-close days. HOG has consolidated a bit around the 65 level, but stepped up on Friday in an attempt to retake the 50-day moving average:
Fundamentally, HOG sports a 27% earnings growth rate and a strong 26% ROE:
Looking at the revenue and earnings numbers, we see that the quarter ending in June is typically the strongest quarter. While sales haven't been logging double-digit increases recently, due to the economics of a company like this, even small increases in sales produce good increases in earnings.
While you are not going to buy HOG stock for the dividend (it currently yields 1.4%), the dividend was recently increased by 31%.
So fundamentals, and technicals, are good. In today's Seasonal Forecaster I analyze the seasonal chart for HOG, determining whether there is any track record of HOG gains, most likely from institutional participation, this time of year. And if everything lines up suggesting this is a good time to enter a HOG trade, I cover, as with all trade candidates, how to trade that stock with strategies that increase the likelihood of success even further – ‘high probability trading'.
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, type in www.markettamer.com/seasonal-forecaster
Copyright (C) 2014 Stock & Options Training LLC
Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.
Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com with extensive experience in the financial sector.
Gregg started out as an Engineer and brings a rigorous thinking to his financial research. Gregg's passion for finance resulted in the creation of a real-time quote system and his work has been featured nationally in publications, such as the Investment Guide magazine.
As an avid researcher, Gregg concentrates on leveraging what institutional and big money players are doing to move the market and create seasonal trend patterns. Using custom research tools, Gregg identifies stocks that are optimal for stock and options traders to exploit these trends and find the tailwinds that can propel stocks to levels that are hidden to the average trader.
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