I do not trust this market. Too many companies are seeing declining revenues and earnings, and many stocks are showing signs of distribution. However there are always companies that are growing, have good business models, and show evidence of faith by both insiders and institutions.
In market environments like the current one I like to look for these companies, and the more ‘off the charts' they are, meaning the ones you don't see mentioned very often in the financial news, the better. Core businesses that are doing well will attract the attention, and money of institutions, don't need to be regularly mentioned on CNBC.
I came across one such company this weekend. While the overall market has flirted with lows below the initial August plunge, this company has formed a trading range above the August lows.
This company is a major supplier of a key component being increasingly used within several popular products. The most recent earnings report showed a 55% jump in revenues, year-over-year.
One thing that really stood out to me is the amount of stock being bought by insiders. In the past two years, seven key insiders bought new shares. This is pretty unusual for a company where you usually see just selling due to compensation.
The seasonal pattern for this stock shows a pretty good track record of gains over the next three months. The 13-week period has averaged an 11.1% return, with gains in 76% of the years. The five losses (or non-gain, as in the case of a net 0.0%), all were relatively small. But the stock has produced some strong gains over that time period, even shortly after the 2008 crash.
With the stock currently at the top of its recent trading range, it would be best to wait for higher probability setups to enter a new position in the stock (or alternative trade using call options). I cover all of this in today's newsletter.
But I also point out the good dividend, and especially the dividend growth rate, as well as the rather nice income that could be generated by doing covered calls on the stock. Covered calls would not only provide short-term income (and lowering of the cost basis), but also keep a trader ‘in the game' for a likely breakout of the stock.
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal
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