How Do I Spot Accumulation?

How do you spot institutional accumulation? (update on our ACT trade)

One of my selection criteria for high probability trade candidates is evidence of institutional accumulation (or distribution if looking for short trade candidates, but I'll focus on accumulation here). There are likely various thousands-of-dollars-a-month services that can provide that information. But I've found ways to identify it that require far less capital outlay and have proven to be very reliable.

Why is identification of accumulation important? I won't make money in a stock position unless it moves (ignoring dividends for the moment). Stocks move mostly from institutional buying and selling. So I don't want to be buying a stock that isn't drawing the attention of institutions. I want to be riding their coattails. They have far more buying power than I do.

Actavis (ACT) is a big-name drug stock I've traded in and out of several times in the past few years. We've made some very good profits from it in the Seasonal Forecaster newsletter. In the April 15th, 2015 newsletter I covered a new trade setup in ACT.

My trade entry in Actavis was based on excellent fundamentals, including a history of strong earnings and revenue growth from well-managed acquisitions, a good technical setup on the daily chart, and a strong seasonal chart (track record of gains this time of year). But the timing of my trade entry was based on the evidence of institutional accumulation. How did I spot it?

Up/Down Volume Ratio

Up/Down Volume Ratio, a calculation Investor's Business Daily follows on stocks, was at 1.4 for ACT in mid-April. From my experience, an Up/Down Vol Ratio greater than or equal to 1.3 often indicates stocks under strong accumulation. In fact, I like to chart the U/D Vol value on each stock and look for patterns. ACT's U/D Vol Ratio not only was currently above 1.3, but had been trending higher over time – an indication institutional accumulation may be increasing.

On Balance Volume

Another good indicator of accumulation is On Balance Volume (OBV), an charting indicator based on volume analysis popularized by Joseph Granville in the 1960's. OBV was increasing steadily along with the rise in the stock:

A steady, significant increase in the number of institutions holding ACT

From MarketSmith.com (ok, this is a subscription service, so it's not free) I saw a steady, strong increase in the number of funds holding the stock.

A 42.5% increase in the number of funds holding the stock over the course of a year certainly indicates institutional interest in the stock is increasing. But was Actavis running out of potential growth in institutional participation? Not likely. There are over 17,000 hedge and mutual funds in just the United States, and even the current holders of the stock are likely still building their positions.

A visual analysis of the volume pattern on the daily and weekly charts

The final way I confirm likely institutional accumulation is by looking at the volume pattern on primarily the daily chart. With ACT, there were regular bouts of above-average volume on up-close days. These are often the ‘footprints' of institutions building their positions. Below, I've taken the chart of ACT I presented in the 4/15 newsletter and marked the regular spikes in volume. The volume on up-close days (green bars) was overwhelming the volume on down-close days (red bars).

Where does this trade stand right now?

We are currently up 4.6% on this trade. But the trade should have a more to go, especially if it breaks above the March highs. We made as much as 56% on a previous run-up in ACT back in late 2013/early 2014, so it can make lengthy advances. And yesterday's 2% jump in ACT may have been due to an article in yesterday's Investor's Business Daily's International Leaders section titled Is Top-Rated Drug Stock Actavis Ready To Rally Again?

Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day.  To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal

By Gregg Harris, MarketTamer Chief Technical Strategist

Copyright (C) 2015 Stock & Options Training LLC

Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.

Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com.

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