The NASDAQ Composite recently set new all-time highs this summer, finally exceeding the 2000 Internet-craze highs. The most recent rally, starting a couple of weeks ago, matched the October highs, but could not break higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have tried several times this year to break to new highs. All attempts so far have been unsuccessful. The NASDAQ has been slightly stronger. However, it too could not break higher during this latest attempt.
Perhaps the markets are merely consolidating, waiting for today's employment numbers to come out, or for the Fed to finally announce an increase in interest rates. Perhaps.
But the NASDAQ chart shows something more, and it is even more visible on the QQQ chart. While the NASDAQ, and QQQ, recently returned to previous highs, the stochastic indicators set noticeably lower highs:
Is the stochastic indicator an arcane, difficult to understand indicator that only advanced technical analysts use?
The math behind it isn't important, because it really is easy to understand and is widely used. The stochastics indicator merely indicates where the stock is in relation to the recent past. In my QQQ chart above, I use a period of 20 trading days. The red line shows where QQQ closed within the range of the past 20 trading days. So why is that important to know?
The declining red line above tells us the underlying stock, index, or ETF (QQQ in this case), has been closing lower within the recent trading range. This is a sign of diminishing support. Selling is overtaking buying. Buyers are not comfortable with the risk-reward ratio of buying at this point. They are stepping back until they sense not only value, but lower risk. This two-day pullback may not end until buyers feel comfortable. At that point, the stochastic indicator will head upwards.
Until then, entering new long positions, or adding to existing positions, carries higher risk for the potential gain. Professional traders will wait until there is evidence that buying is returning, and the reward and risk calculations look more favorable.
Copyright (C) 2015 Stock & Options Training LLC
Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com.
MarketTamer is not an investment advisor and is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Further, owners, employees, agents or representatives of MarketTamer are not acting as investment advisors and might not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory.
The sender of this email makes no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email, and makes no representations or warranties concerning said company or entity’s compliance with applicable laws and regulations, including, but not limited to, regulations promulgated by the SEC or the CFTC. The sender of this email may receive a portion of the proceeds from the sale of any products or services offered by a company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email. The recipient of this email assumes responsibility for conducting its own due diligence on the aforementioned company or entity and assumes full responsibility, and releases the sender from liability, for any purchase or order made from any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email.
The content on any of MarketTamer websites, products or communication is for educational purposes only. Nothing in its products, services, or communications shall be construed as a solicitation and/or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading stocks, options and other securities involves risk. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial. The risk involved with trading stocks, options and other securities is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must evaluate his/her own personal financial situation and consider all relevant risk factors. See: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp). The www.MarketTamer.com educational training program and software services are provided to improve financial understanding.
The information presented in this site is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Nothing in our research constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Our research is prepared for general circulation and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it. Our research is based on sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of our research, the completeness, or correctness or make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using our research. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on our research or the information contained therein. Some discussions contain forward looking statements which are based on current expectations and differences can be expected. All of our research, including the estimates, opinions and information contained therein, reflects our judgment as of the publication or other dissemination date of the research and is subject to change without notice. Further, we expressly disclaim any responsibility to update such research. Investing involves substantial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and a loss of original capital may occur. No one receiving or accessing our research should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or buy any particular security. As always, use your best judgment when investing.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This product is for educational purposes only. Practical application of the products herein are at your own risk and MarketTamer.com, its partners, representatives and employees assume no responsibility or liability for any use or mis-use of the product. Please contact your financial advisor for specific financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. Any trades shown are hypothetical example and do not represent actual trades. Actual results may differ. Nothing here in constitutes a recommendation respecting the particular security illustrated.
Also on Market Tamer…
Follow Us on Facebook