Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield climbs toward 3.0% ahead of economic data

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Treasury yields rose on early Friday, extending the week’s climb, ahead of a raft of data that mayu signal whether inflationary pressures are building from increased consumer spending.

The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.59% rose 2.3 basis points to 2.987%, its highest since Aug. 2. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.47% was up 2.2 basis points to 2.778%, its highest since July 2008. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.50% added 1.8 basis points to 3.119%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.

Investors will contend with a busy morning of economic data. Retail sales and import prices for August are set to come out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, offering a glimpse of domestic consumption and its potential knock-on effect for inflation. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect retail sales to come in at 0.3%. Industrial production data will arrive at 9:15 a.m., followed by September’s consumer sentiment numbers at 10 a.m.

Adding momentum to Friday’s yield climb, traders said improving optimism that trade tensions between the U.S. and China have ebbed, easing demand for haven assets like U.S. government paper, after reports earlier this week said some officials in President Donald Trump’s administration were planning to propose a new round of talks with Beijing. But Trump later said there was no urgency to strike a trade deal with China.

On the monetary policy front, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak at 9 a.m. Soon after, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will give a speech on the Fed policy framework at 10 a.m. Rosenegren has recently called for the central bank to bring up the benchmark fed-funds rate beyond the neutral rate into restrictive territory, where monetary policy starts to constrain growth and inflation.

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