Today's newsletter focuses on the importance of waiting for trades to set up properly. This is even more important in market environments like we are currently dealing with. A number of good quality stocks have been trading sideways, forming tight trading ranges. Few stocks have been able to find the momentum to post new highs on strong volume. The majority have been cycling within trading ranges or pausing at lower highs. Uncertainty with world events, the possibility of Fed tapering, a likely new Fed chairman, and an upcoming debt limit showdown have added to the confusion.
But patience trumps all sooner or later. Institutional traders don't make money for their clients by sitting on the sidelines. If there is a stock they have researched and want to add to their portfolio, they do not wait forever for the perfect market conditions. What helps increase the overall returns and trade-success rates of traders is developing an eye for likely institutional accumulation and applying the patience to wait for such evidence before entering new positions.
In several newsletters over the past year I focused on Estee Lauder and the strong fundamentals and chart setups in the stock. In the July 22nd Seasonal Forecaster newsletter, I pointed out that after a recent pullback, EL had settled into a tight sideways consolidation. While the possibility existed the stock could eventually break out of that range and drop further, because the volume pattern was showing selling tapering off and buying coming in, I said
“If it closes above 68.75 on strong volume, or during the day looks like it will close above 68.75 on strong volume, this should offer a good entry for buying the stock. A covered call, or delayed covered call by buying the stock initially and then selling calls against it after it rises to near 70, should work well.”
68.75 was the top of that trading range, and any move above it, on increasing volume, would make a good setup for a higher probability trade.
But when I wrote that, EL had not yet shown it was ready to pick a direction. My point was to wait, and watch it closely.
A few days later, EL broke to the downside on high volume, following the overall market. However, as with the overall market, the selling lasted only couple of a few days, and strong buying came in.
At this point, a trader still would not know the likely ultimate direction of the stock. But with a new pivot point low right around the late June low, the possibility of a wider trading range appeared. Sure enough, EL traded within that range for the next two months. The volume pattern was improving nicely, showing accumulation vastly overwhelming selling. Estee Lauder's fundamental picture hadn't changed, and no negative news appeared related to the stock.
At this point, the trading range was 64.5 to 68.75 and now two-months old. A breakout, in either direction, would likely be the direction EL stock would build upon. Several high volume up-close days, as well as the strong fundamentals and seasonal track record this stock had, made me believe the likely direction would be up. But, I just had to be patient.
It didn't take long. On September 9th, EL gapped out of that two-month trading range, from a new skincare product launch and upgrades by Citigroup and other analysts.
The sideways consolidation period with volume on up-close days overwhelming volume on down-close days shows one or more institutions either knew what was coming or had strong faith in Estee Lauder's prospects. The number of funds holding EL has increased 15% over the past year (from 1113 to 1287), so it is far more than just one institution participating here.
EL is now up 3% from the breakout level, but more importantly is only 1.4% away from setting a new all-time high. The weekly chart suggests another strong step-up in EL would not be unusual.
By identifying setups offering potential, but patiently waiting for the setup to complete and the price action to confirm, you can significantly increase your odds of success. I cover another setup that worked out with patience in today's newsletter.
Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day. To find out more, type in www.markettamer.com/seasonal-forecaster
Copyright (C) 2013 Stock & Options Training LLC
Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.
Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com with extensive experience in the financial sector.
Gregg started out as an Engineer and brings a rigorous thinking to his financial research. Gregg's passion for finance resulted in the creation of a real-time quote system and his work has been featured nationally in publications, such as the Investment Guide magazine.
As an avid researcher, Gregg concentrates on leveraging what institutional and big money players are doing to move the market and create seasonal trend patterns. Using custom research tools, Gregg identifies stocks that are optimal for stock and options traders to exploit these trends and find the tailwinds that can propel stocks to levels that are hidden to the average trader.
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